NFL wagering

New York Giants winning margin 7-12 @ 11/2. And why not?

Happy NFL day

Hooray Thanksgiving. This of course means three NFL games on a Thursday and some stuff about Pilgrims too, but mostly the NFL.

I usually take my NFL advises from an awesome blog which you can find here. This guy really knows his stuff. And as luck would have it, just as I managed to lose a tidy sum by doing my own thinking, this man's biggest bet of the season has come along in the shape of a Baltimore Ravens win against the 49ers.

I was going to paraphrase the write up, but then I thought why bother? What's the point of having a copy and paste facility if you're just going to spend valuable napping time typing stuff out.

It's long but if you're into NFL and wagering it's a must read. So if you're sitting comfortably, we'll being...

OK, here we go... Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh... I probably don't have to write too many words here because the match-up ought to be clear... In many ways these teams are so similar... Great defenses, efficient offenses (except on odd occasions when Cam Cameron forgets to give Ray Rice the football)...

I really don't think the public has seen the TRUE Ravens yet. They've lost 3 games this year to crappy squads (Tennessee, Jax, & Seattle); two of those losses came the week after they played the Steelers.

Most of the reasons for those losses were sleepwalking on offense & costly turnovers (3 vs. Seattle in the RED ZONE, 2 on kickoff returns)... I don't care who you're playing, you just can't hand the other team 17 free points & expect to win in the NFL. Basically the same things happened vs. Tennessee & Jacksonville...

San Francisco is undefeated (save for the overtime loss vs. the Cowboys). Since that's in the back of many people's minds (& with only one loss), the 49ers are being discussed along side the Packers as the best two teams in the NFL right now.

What makes me grin is that the same 'experts' can't even see fit to put the Ravens in the top "3" of just the AFC!!! Most recent I saw was Nick Mangini (ESPN) ranking the Ravens behind the Patriots & Steelers (even though the Ravens beat the Steelers twice already this year, as well as beat the Houston Texans by 15, and annihilated the Jets (whom many consider somewhat neck & neck with the Patriots)...

Whatever...

I understand the 'emotion' of siding with the Steelers or Patriots (but the 'logic' still escapes me)...

Actually, the most dangerous thing for the Ravens would be to put the whammy on San Francisco here on Thanksgiving Night. At that point, it's likely that the Ravens could follow up that victory with losses to the Browns & Colts...

Impressive as the 49ers have been this year, I just don't think that they ought to be compared with (let alone 'elevated above' the status of the Ravens) until they've proven more... A LOT MORE...

A lot of folks have come & gone into M&T Bank Stadium with their shiny little records only to go home with a few more players on the PUP list, another "L" on their resume, and their tails between their legs...

Think it's so easy?...

Nobody... NOBODY... In the Joe Flacco era - west of the Indianapolis Colts (& that was a 'Peyton Manning' led Indianapolis Colts that um went on to play, & were 'favored' over, the New Orleans Saints in the Superbowl) - THOSE Colts barely managed to beat the Ravens (17-15).

The only OTHER teams to beat Baltimore at M&T were the Steelers, TWICE, (both times by a field goal - once, in OT, & both times where Baltimore held 4th quarter leads & BOTH times when the Steelers went on to play in the Superbowl that same year). Also, the division rival Bengals beat them once (17-14) on a TD pass from Carson Palmer to Andre Caldwell with 22 seconds to play.

That's it... That's the BEST 3 Superbowl bound teams were able to manage in Baltimore (an 'overtime' win, a FG win, & a 2 point win).

Most will forget also (BEFORE the Joe Flacco era - when Baltimore had to exist with Kyle FUCKING Boller as QB), that the undefeated New England Patriots (yeah, THOSE 18-1 New England Patriots), barely escaped with their lives in Baltimore late in the season on a winning drive that had the benefit of shady penalty after shady penalty.

Oh, but I'm sure ALL of that past history is just a fluke... I'm SURE the 49ers, who haven't managed a season better than 8-8 in a DECADE, are going to waltz into Baltimore & show the Ravens who is boss... I'll have to look, but it seems to me that the Ravens have more ROAD PLAYOFF WINS during that same span.

Alright look... I don't want to say that the 49ers are bad... They've had a nice season & they're coached well... I'm going to have to go with older brother JOHN here though... It may not be apparent to the fucking HACK TV sportscasters out there, but this is a huge jump in class for the 49ers.

It's one thing to beat up on the Rams, Seahawks, & Cardinals (in your division) twice a year, then have the Cleveland Browns & Tampa Bay Bucs come to town & beat up on them... But it's a whole damn other thing to travel all the way East & play in a prime time game against a team that the PITTSBURGH STEELERS (who as I mentioned before are the team that all these 'expert' sportscasters have as being BETTER than the Ravens)... The STEELERS THEMSELVES know that they have to bring their A+1 game into Baltimore if they hope to win (Didn't work in week 1 when they were smoked 35-7)... Then #2 are the Patriots (according to the same 'experts')... Umm - the Patriots got smoked by the Steelers...

Anyway, if the Steelers are usually 3 point DOGS to the Ravens at M&T... You mean to tell me that the 49ers ought to be 3 point dogs too???... The Steelers have played in 3 Super Bowls (& won 2) since the 49ers even sniffed the playoffs...

Come on Man!

Couldn't have put it better myself. Biggest single bet of the season for me. And why not?

NFL week 10 - Bear market

So typical of the footballing Gods to give England a victory just cause I had so conclusively blogged about how they can't win. While we did offer up the caveat of rain for a shock result in England's favour, Spain still absolutely thrashed England and lost 1-0. Silly game.

A less silly game of American football will allow us to stick one in the eye of the footballing Gods today however as the NFL is out of their jurisdiction. We have an interesting game in particular we want to focus on so let's do that now shall we yes?

So then, according to my research the Las Vegas bookies are going 65% 35% on the Lions for this game, yet the handicap is rising in Chicago's favour from -1.5 to -3 (-2.5 in the UK). This tells us of course that Las Vegas wants more money on the Lions.

Why? Why? Well cause Chicago is going to win according to them and who am I to argue with Vegas? My betting expert sausage dog Ralf is telling me the conditions are suited for a Bears win. It's cold and windy. It'll be a game where a field goal may decide the difference and the Lion's kicker is injured. We may see field goal attempts blown miles of course and end up in Pittsburgh. Top quality winter fooootbooowl.

I will also be wagering on the Cowboys and the 49ers - all after the spread - and I was able to include a points win for Manny Pacquiao to conclude our most awesome Sunday Yankee.

Good luck with all your bets.

Sunday Nuffel wagering

So now, a few weeks ago I stumbled upon an NFL blog authored by a sports bettor who, should I ever meet him, will drink for free whenever he is in my company.

His analysis of games is incredible and his selections have won me two bags of sand in the month of October for an initial outlay of £55.

If it wasn't for me fucking my profits up with my own bets I'd have myself a money printing machine.

I'm getting greedy this weekend. No doubt he'll have a rare stinker and I'll lose my monies, but such is this man's forensic analysis of these games I don't care as I'll be sure to make it back again in the remain weeks of the season.

I've placed a Heinz wager this week. We don't expect all six selections to come in but 4/6 is quite possible. We can expect somewhere win the region of one and half bags of sand however should all six of; Tennessee, Houston, St Louis, Baltimore, Miami and Washington - come in.

Good luck with all your bets.

Bag of sand challenge

Well now after a loss yesterday of £40 leaving us only £150 to turn into one bag of your Earth sand we again took another small £11 loss this afternoon with a rather silly £1 Yankee:


However, we have made splendid progress since with a stupendous result with our 26 bet Canadian coming in as well as a supplementary 5 fold acca with the same selections that I don't even remember placing!

This of course must have been placed during the period where I was bored and just began clicking on wagers.


We now have £690 safely secured with a £77.76 double outstanding which will return £272.16.


This leaves us about £40 short of our goal. I will therefore place a final wager to cover this bullseye and hope Club merca can do the business tonight. Kick off 11:30pm. From such a poor beginning how exciting it's all become.

I'm supposed to making my Ali like return to the ring at the Fox tomorrow if I can be persuaded to put some coordinated evening wear on. I just have enough to see flop in the PLO cash game.

For whom the bell tolls

There are two kinds of people in this world; when the last orders bell rings there are those who will have 'one for the road' and there are those who have had enough. I'm incapable of forming any kind of relationship with those who have had enough.

This is about more than just downing one more incredibly cold fizzy pint of German pop in fifteen minutes. For me, imposing limits on yourself shows a lack of ambition. A lack of imagination and a complacency about the future.

You're assuming you'll be back in the pub again in a few days. You're assuming you'll see your chums again. You're assuming too much. We're too fragile people to impose limits on ourselves and to take anything for granted.

Coupled with the fact that we are all of course doomed, I urge everyone to take a moment to reconsider what is really important in life and to lift self-imposed and unnecessary limits on one's freedom.

With this in mind I will be eating three different varieties of cake today and I will continue to bet on the NFL even though I would enjoy more success if I played three card brag with the good people of Dale Farm.

Today's wagers include a death defying Trixie which, for a return of £758.40, will require: a second half sending off in the North London Derby, a win for Swansea and a win for Real Betis.

This evening's NFL wager a quite audacious 'away' accumulator in which we hope the following occurrences will occur; wins for Detroit, Denver, Washington and Buffalo.

A final throw of the dice

I have unfortunately only one more opportunity to bring nurses Suki and Ling Ling over from China to head up my personal medical staff. They have become frustrated with the loneliness of our separation and taste of the soups and are considering another offer from a Russian businessman who is also keen to enjoy their unique blend of oriental medicine, therapeutic massage and their gentle pillow fights.

Today's hail Mary NFL wager will have to be successful or I will have to continue on with my fate alone. Alone, sore and sexually frustrated.

If the Gods are still reading my blog, I will need the Houston Texans to win (+4), as well as Oakland (+3), Cincinnati (-2.5) and I will also be betting points in Buffalo 53.5 - I fancy that's a 60+ game.

Good luck everyone.

NFL week 1

Sadly and frustratingly nurses Suki and Ling Ling's exit visa papers remain unsigned. It is essential they are brought over as soon as possible to head my personal medical staff.

My back is playing up and I've got a sore throat and while my genitals are fine, it can't hurt to have them soaped up and rinsed clean with cascading warm water gently funneled down from between Suki's firm ample bosom.

So following the failures of yesterday's footballing Yankee, the pressure is on to make today's NFL wagers count.

We have placed a yankee and one or two season long wagers: I fancy the Redskins, Ravens, Atlanta and Philadelphia to overcome their handicaps today. And why? I also feel the following divisional conclusions will be concluded at the regular season's conclusion:

NFC North - Green Bay Packers
NFC South - Nawlens Saints
NFC East - The city of brotherly love and bad AIDS Eagles
NFC West - St Louis Rams

AFC North - Baltimore Ravens
AFC South - Indianapolis Colts
AFC East - New England Patriots
AFC West - San Diego Chargers

Superbowl 46 winners - Green Bay Packers

Hero to zero

Given my consistently inconsistent footballing prognostications of late, I've decided to abandon proper football and have a bash at some Mercan football wagering. This evening while I'm struggling my way through the Pigeon's game, the game of the season so far in the NFL will occur in Philadelphia and even if I am pushed around by Joy, I'll thank my lucky stars I'm not Donovan McNabb being pushed around by the city of Philadelphia.

This is a big one so early in the season not because it will necessarily make or break the season for either team, but because of both Quarterbacks' individual circumstances.

The hapless Redskins led by ex-Eagle Donovan McNabb will enter the Lincoln financial field to a generous round of applause from the fans in recognition for McNabb's eleven years of service with the Eagles. Or so he thinks.

Fans in Philadelphia are somewhat partisan. It's true McNabb didn't really want to leave, didn't ask to leave and had a good relationship with Eagle's fans, but usually that doesn't count for much when you return with a rival team...and you ultimately failed to deliver anything while you were there.

I don't recall Flyers fans being too generous to Eric Lindros when he showed up in Philly in a Rangers uniform for the first time. There might have been generous applause for McNabb had he returned in a Seattle Seahawks uniform, but not a Redskins one. I'm expecting a hostile reception for him, and if the Redskins start well the last decade may as well have not happened.

Michael Vick has something to prove in this game also. I am pleased he is now the starting quarterback. I don't have any time usually for people who list dog fighting as a hobby, but I've never understood why he had to go to jail because of it.

In America it's acceptable to hunt for sport. Sarah Palin for example can gun down bears from a helicopter for fun and it's fine, yet Michael Vick's dog fighting championships is punishable by jail time and a career in ruins. Not condoning dog fighting of course, just I fail to understand the difference in terms of animal cruelty.

Anyway, I digress...so now he has wrested the number one spot from Kevin Kolb, albeit after an injury to the original starter, he now has the harder task of keeping hold of it. Beating Washington tonight and sending Donovon McNabb home penniless will go a long way to securing this. It will allow his employers to point at McNabb and say they were justified in ditching him and ditching him to a divisional rival at that, it will also put to bed the nonsense surrounding the Kolb/Vick starting quarterback flip-flopping debacle.

I myself can't see how the Redskins win here. They have a shambolic defense. Strictly going by the numbers it's a home banker. Michael Vick is red hot and the Redskins defense is the worst in the NFL.

McNabb would have to produce something for the ages to win this game and the simple fact of the matter is Andy Reid would not have traded him to a division rival in the first place if he thought he was capable of that kind of performance.

As a Redskins fan and a sports better on a cold streak, I say this with a heavy heart and a light wallet; the 1.44 for an Eagle's win must surely be far too generous to pass up. I know anyone can beat anyone on any given Sunday, but this isn't really any given Sunday.

NFL on Channel

Hoorah NFL back on Channel 4 where it all started. They should have Nicky Horne on and Gary Imlach with his awesome wavy hair and also that dude who couldn't read from an autocue,.. Mick Luckhurst?

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