12 May 2012

Real Zaragoza again?

What are the chances of my blogging about Real Zaragoza two posts in a row? Totally unrelated posts too.

They have a chance to kick me in the bollocks once again.  And once again it's me going looking for it.

I have a routine in the morning.  I "get up" at about 8:00am.  I have a shot of morphine to take the edge of the day (why wait until the day's actually over?) make a cup of tea and I sit down at my computron to find out what's happened in the parts of world I'm interested in; Arsenal blogs and boards, Blonde Poker betting thread, the Twitters and the fucking hilarious Clients from Hell website.

I then absorb what I've been taken in - the knowledge and tea - during a nice nap.

Some time later I get back up again and re-read what I read earlier, just to make sure it wasn't a dream.  Only this time I have a sammich with me instead of tea.  I know, I know..you already wish you were me.

Anyway, three of these websites interconnected today.  Real Zaragoza was the common denominator.  They are priced at 1.64 to beat Getafe who are priced at 6.0 to win the game. The draw is trading at 4.5.

Now if you didn't know anything about the teams or the game, you'd assume Zaragoza were the home side or the form side at least or both, no?

As with the Premier League, this Sunday is the final weekend of La Liga's Primera Division. But it's Getafe who are safe.  Real Zaragoza need to win (and we here at the blog of course hope the are relegated because of the Nayim thing in 1995).

So how is a team second from bottom priced at 1.64 against a mid-table team with nothing to play for?  An equivalent fixture in the Premier League is Stoke's game against Bolton.  Stoke are the hoe team, they're safe in the league and favourite's to win the game at 2.4.  Bolton are 3.1 and must win.  The draw is 3.7.

Real Zaragoza has won 7 of the previous ten games, but is that all that's justifying the price? If they're second from bottom still after winning so many games how shit must they have been when they were losing?  They must have lost almost every week.

I don't see how a team who can still be second from bottom after winning seven of their previous ten games can be such a favourite against a team with an average record for the division.

In all games in Spain where this circumstance exists, where a team fighting for relegation is playing a "safe" team - the team that need the win always seem to be favourites.  But the results from previous season don't seem to warrant this cultural bias.  It's very mix and mash as to who wins.  There is no undeniable history of the safe team just giving the points away.

I'm assuming I'm missing something here. I'll back Getafe and then find out their striker for the game will be a fan who's won a competition run in the Club's match day programme to win a place in the starting line-up in the last home game.

I'm sure I'm missing some huge piece of information everyone else but me is aware of.  But until I find it I'm investing in Getafe.  I'm also backing Stoke to beat Bolton.  Stoke I think are the kind of team who never give anything away without a fight.

We will discuss Arsenal's plight tomorrow if we can bear ourselves to think about it.  I might just argue the cases for the Championship winning contenders.  I'm not so sure it's done and dusted just yet.

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